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8 March, 2026
Dry, warmer conditions increase autumn fire risk
A lack of significant rainfall (up until this week), extreme heat and high fuel loads were a major contributor to the bushfires across large parts of Victoria during January and this elevated risk is set to continue well into autumn.
AFTER a dry and hotter than usual summer, most of Victoria will face an increased risk of fire over the coming months, according to the Australian Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for Autumn released last week.
A lack of significant rainfall (up until this week) extreme heat and high fuel loads were a major contributor to the bushfires across large parts of Victoria during January and this elevated risk is set to continue well into autumn.
Excluding the first few days, the outlook for autumn is again drier than normal, with forecast warmer than average maximum daytime and overnight temperatures.
These conditions may further increase fuel availability across already parched grasslands, forests, woodlands and heathlands – making it easier for fires to start and spread.
“Our long-term drying trend will continue with many parts of Victoria recording below average rain and some no rain at all during January,” Deputy Emergency Management Commissioner Brett Boatman said.
“With these conditions expected to continue through autumn, we all need to remain vigilant about the potential for fires.
“Be prepared, understand your local risks, use the VicEmergency app and stay tuned to your local emergency broadcaster.”
A normal bushfire risk this autumn is only forecast for East Gippsland and the Mallee.
East Gippsland, including Bairnsdale and Orbost, has had consistent rain in spring and summer and the Mallee, around Mildura and Kerang, has reduced fuel loads.
However, even in areas with normal bushfire potential, fast running fires are possible on dry and windy days in areas with dry or cured vegetation.
The extreme conditions may delay planned burning in much of the state, but it may also increase opportunities to target areas not typically available for planned burning during April and May.
“While conditions remain dry with little rain forecast in certain parts of the state over coming months, the fire risk will continue but our crews are ready and will adapt to changes as they develop through autumn,” Country Fire Authority (CFA) acting chief officer Alen Slijepcevic said.
“Victorians should continue to maintain their properties and stay informed of their local risks so they can take action to protect their families in the event of a fire.’”
Emergency services will continue to monitor conditions to identify key risk areas leading into the autumn period.
We know weather conditions shift quickly across Victoria. As well as fires, it’s also important people are storm smart,” Victorian State Emergency Services chief operations officer Alistair Drayton said.
“We encourage all Victorians to consider how they can ready themselves and their properties, not just fires, but for other emergencies, such as floods and storms, including preparing an emergency kit with food and water, a torch and medicines.”
Victoria remains well prepared for the potential of fires, with aircraft positioned across the state to support dedicated volunteer and career firefighters on the ground.
The Australian Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for Autumn is developed by the Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council and supported by the Bureau of Meteorology along with state and territory fire and land managers.
It’s important for communities to understand their local risks.
Keep up to date with the Fire Danger Ratings on the VicEmergency app and VicEmergency website.
You can also follow your local emergency services on Facebook for local updates. Visit the SES and CFA websites for more.
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